toeclim - Time of Emergence of Climate Signals from Internal Variability

Detects when a forced climate change signal emerges from internal variability ('time of emergence') in annual climate time series such as temperature or precipitation. The signal is estimated with a linear, quadratic or locally weighted smoother and compared with noise estimated from a baseline period. Emergence is defined through configurable signal-to-noise thresholds and persistence rules. Uncertainty in the time of emergence is quantified by autoregressive or moving-block bootstrap resampling. Helpers are provided for multi-member ensembles, threshold sensitivity, anomaly and annual aggregation, Mann-Kendall trend tests with trend-free prewhitening, and synthetic data generation. The approach builds on Hawkins and Sutton (2012) <doi:10.1029/2011GL050087>, Yue et al. (2002) <doi:10.1002/hyp.1095> and Sen (1968) <doi:10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934>.